Tell us what matters.
Set your business type, location, and risks. Start with weather, operating costs, or economic changes.
FOR THE BUSINESS YOU BUILT
Your business.
A changing world.
A steadier view.
Weather shifts. Costs change. Business goes on. Find and monitor events on Kalshi that relate to the risks you face every day.
$49.95/month at launch · No payment to join early access
POWERED BY ARGOVISSTART WITH WHAT AFFECTS YOUHeat. Rain. Rising costs.
Turn a business concern into a clearer question.
BUILT AROUND YOUR BUSINESS
BIG QUESTIONS. LOCAL BUSINESSES.
Restaurants ✳ Retailers ✳ Contractors ✳ Service businesses ✳ And yours.
A CLEARER PLACE TO START
From “what if?”
to “what can I watch?”
You know your business. Tillsteady is being built to help you connect its risks with relevant event markets.
Find events worth a look.
Explore related Kalshi markets. Check the dates, location, settlement rules, and available liquidity.
Stay informed. Choose your next step.
Save markets and receive email alerts. If you choose to trade, place your own order on Kalshi.
REAL BUSINESSES. REAL QUESTIONS.
What could affect
your next month?
Different businesses face different risks. Start with a concern you recognize.
AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
RESTAURANT / WEATHER
Too hot for
the patio?
Extreme heat could reduce outdoor dining. Explore whether a temperature event on Kalshi relates to your location and busy season.
BEFORE YOU CONSIDER A TRADE
Compare the market’s weather station, temperature threshold, and dates with your restaurant’s exposure.
Examples explain the approach. They are not live market listings or trade recommendations.
LOOK BEYOND THE HEADLINE
A relevant event
is only the first check.
A market can match your concern and still be difficult to trade. Tillsteady’s planned market view puts these checks together.
Does the event match your risk?
Compare the location, timing, and settlement source. The contract’s outcome may differ from your actual business loss.
Is there liquidity for your intended size?
Review the buy/sell price gap and quantities in the order book. Past trading volume alone does not show what you can trade now.
What would it cost?
Consider the contract price, exchange fees, and price changes across the order book. Quotes can change before you trade.
CAN’T FIND A RELEVANT MARKET?
Start a conversation.
Shape a clearer proposal.
Request a review of your business risk. We first look for existing markets. If there is a gap, Argovis can help define the event, evidence, and proposed settlement rules for a submission to Kalshi.
Discuss a market request01
Check existing markets
↗02
Review fit and feasibility
↗03
Prepare a proposal with Argovis
↗04
Kalshi decides whether to list
↗A request does not guarantee a listing or trading liquidity. Any custom-work fee will be quoted before work starts.
ONE SIMPLE STARTING POINT
Less time searching.
More context
for your decisions.
For small and medium businesses that want a clearer view of the events around them.
POWERED BY ARGOVISTILLSTEADY MEMBERSHIPAT LAUNCH
$49.95/ month
USD · planned monthly subscription
- Business profile and relevant event discovery
- Plain-language business-risk explanations
- Saved markets and email alerts
- Market fit and liquidity checks
- Market-request intake and status tracking
No payment today. Subscription checkout opens when the paid service is ready. Kalshi trades and exchange fees are separate. Custom market-design work may cost extra.
A FEW USEFUL ANSWERS
Before you begin.
Is Tillsteady available now?
The marketing site and early-access registration are live. The paid monitoring service is in preparation. Join early access for updates; we will not charge you through this form.
Do I trade through Tillsteady?
No. At launch, Tillsteady will help you discover and monitor relevant events. You place any orders directly on Kalshi through your own eligible account. Tillsteady does not hold your trading funds.
Is this insurance?
No. Tillsteady is a planned research and monitoring service. Event contracts do not reimburse business losses. Trading can lose money, and a contract may not offset the loss your business experiences.
Can you create a new Kalshi market?
We can review a request and help prepare a market proposal, powered by Argovis. Kalshi controls whether the market is listed and its final rules. A listing does not guarantee liquidity. We will agree any custom-work fee with you before work starts.
Which businesses is this for?
We are starting with U.S. small and medium businesses across sectors. Examples include restaurants, retailers, contractors, and service businesses. Market availability and Kalshi account eligibility vary.
What does the monthly price cover?
The planned $49.95 monthly subscription covers the Tillsteady monitoring tools listed above. Trading capital, Kalshi exchange fees, and any separately quoted custom work are additional. Final billing terms will be shown before a purchase.
LET’S START WITH YOUR BUSINESS
A steadier view
starts here.
Tell us what you do and what you want to watch. Join early access or ask about a market proposal.
Prefer email? Talk to the Argovis team ↗